Curious about how you size up against world-class problem-solvers and forecasters – and about how much better your can get?
Our starter exercise will be a coronavirus forecasting tournament that will let your benchmark your performance against a range of benchmarks, from dart-tossing chimps to seasoned professionals and Superforecasters.
ABOUT GJP 2.0
From ACE to FOCUS
GJP 2.0 is the latest R&D project from the team behind the Good Judgment Project (GJP). GJP was the runaway winner of a massive four-year geopolitical forecasting tournament called ACE that led to the discoveries behind the New York Times bestseller Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.
Now, GJP researchers are tackling their toughest challenge yet – forecasting on questions that ask how history would have unfolded if some key factor or event had been different. What if Hitler had been born a girl? Would World War II ever have happened?
This research is part of a new IARPA program called FOCUS, which seeks to develop evidence-based guidelines that any organization can use to improve its "lessons-learned" processes. As IARPA notes, "[c]ounterfactual forecasts about what would have worked in past circumstances are very often the basis for lessons learned for what to do in the future. And such lessons often evolve, over time, into best practices and tradecraft."
We're looking for intellectually curious volunteers who would like to join GJP 2.0 researchers and our collaborators, many of whom are Superforecasters, in testing new approaches to counterfactual forecasting.
OUR RESEARCH TEAM
Phil Tetlock is the author and/or editor of such seminal works on forecasting and counterfactual reasoning as Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, and Unmaking the West: What-if scenarios that rewrite world history, along with over 100 articles and book chapters. He is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. Winner of numerous awards including the Grawemeyer World Order Prize, Tetlock is also a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a Member of the American Philosophical Society.
Barb Mellers, a globally influential scholar of decision making, is the I. George Heyman University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where she is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences.
Her research examines the factors that influence judgments and decisions. She is an author of almost 100 articles and book chapters, co-editor of two books and a member of numerous prestigious editorial boards. Mellers served as president of the Judgment and Decision Making Society, was a five-year National Science Foundation Presidential Young Investigator and has received major research support from the NSF.